睡觉与创业

罗记

20年前AOM的BPS Email List讨论组里，管理员Stephen（？）曾经发过一个消息，调侃Kinesiology领域的某篇博士论文，研究题目是中长跑运动员对于自己运动服设计和色彩的感受对其比赛成绩的影响。How Anthletes' Feeling about their Uniforms Affect Their Performance.
当然，你也不能说这种感觉对比赛结果没啥作用，只是题目比较Trivial而已。既没有什么理论色彩以及对实际作用机制的详细勾勒（心理，生理，脑神经方面的），而且实证研究也难以确切地测度和捕捉真实的效应。总之，似乎够不上博士论文来操这份闲心。
当然，研究越来越庸俗，闲心操的人便日渐多了起来。我常说，你拿申报季北大西门外畅春园食街肯德基晚上九点的客流量去预测每年北大考到肯塔基大学的学生数量，估计也会有显著的结果。啥事儿都可能相关哟。
Never say never.
Impossible is nothing.
Nothing is impossible.
Well, possible, but absurd, usually.
看样子，似乎还是博士生太多了。

也许，如今轮到管理学被别的领域的List调侃了。刚才粗略地浏览了一些JBV的最新文章。其中一篇比较好玩。Trivially novel。睡眠质量如何影响对创业机会的想象、认知和识别。长见识了。要不说，Entrepreneurship和IB通常是Theory Free呢。几十年不见多大长进。

Hypothesis 1. In their efforts to imagine promising new venture ideas, sleep-restricted individuals will pay less cognitive attention to structural similarity considerations than will well-rested individuals.
Hypothesis 2ab. : Sleep restriction will be associated with imagining (a) fewer new venture ideas and (b) less attractive new venture ideas.
Hypothesis 3. Sleep restriction will lessen individual abilities to form 3rd-person opportunity beliefs that are congruent with external markers of these ideas' attractiveness.
Hypothesis 4. The ability to attend to structural similarity considerations will mediate the association between sleep restriction and one's formation of congruent 3rd-person opportunity beliefs.

首先，引经据典。睡觉好，睡觉重要，睡觉质量很关键。
其次，咱们做个实验。找一帮人做问卷，那些自称是小业主的人，参与者有机会赢取500元的礼品卡。问他们头天晚上睡的咋样，然后让他们读三份创业计划书的简要，判断创业机会的好坏。

然后，结论自然是支持其假设：睡得好，睡得足，分析的跟符合问卷设计者的预期。

实际的可能性是：头晚休息的好，第二天答题稍微靠谱。跟创业没关系。
创业不是答题，不是一天睡觉质量的事儿，是天天不能睡觉的事儿。睡觉足实的人估计就不去创业了。

这项研究还用了个非常fancy的term：Ideation！

啥叫Ideation？Formation of ideas，especially the vivid framing of mental images relating to certain ideas，usually referring to and originated from the idea of suicide.
Creative use for venture creation, huh？！
Kinesiology好像还有研究专注于运动员的性生活对于比赛成绩的影响。当然，这种研究不是针对长期的pattern，而是对于赛前某个特定时段内的sexual behavior immediately before the race对于比赛成绩的影响。
你只要有问题，无论主次大小，绕来绕去，总能找出来些证据支持你想给出的答案。
马三爷当年说：
天凉了，你嘞有皮猴儿吗？好，没有！
好么，相面都相出皮猴儿了！

这几位小爷说：
你嘞睡没睡？睡瓷实了木有？每天，缺觉么？
好么，睡觉都睡出创业家了！

以后，创业者研究的前景就更丰盛了：
how many times do you have sex every week？
how does that affect your mind and stamina in your work?
what's the optimal number?
do you have health insurance? what's the co-pay?
do you listen to Mozart?
do you call your mother every week?
do you hug your CFO?

do you dress your dog?

do you drink both coffee and tea?
do you eat sea cucumber at all? in the morning or in the evening?

yawn!